As we’ve all noticed, deed transfers really got stuck in a rut in 2023. Too few owners are selling their homes. Supply is down. Prices are up.
A core issue? The Federal Reserve. Over the past two years, the Fed has hiked rates in order to banish inflation and to tighten up the economy. So, if you think it’s a terrible housing market out there, interest rates have absolutely factored into your frustration.
But finally, the Fed has announced it will not hike interest rates again in the coming year. The “signal” from the Fed is that sometime in 2024 it will even cut those high rates.
Time to buckle up? Let’s take a look.
What’s the Scoop on Interest Rates?
Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve have a mid-December message for the U.S. population. They are cautiously confident (or something along those lines) that all the rate hikes of the past two years are managing to bring down inflation.
And this is why, on Wednesday, Dec. 13, the Fed announced a decision not to hike rates this time. Instead, they left rates in a pause mode.
Indeed, our central bank even indicated a willingness to “pivot” — and lower the interest rate for banks — at some point in 2024.
No promises as to when. The Fed is still pursuing its goal of pushing U.S. inflation down to 2% (or at least close to that level) by 2025. At 4%, today’s rate of inflation is still significantly above where the Fed wants it to be.
So the Fed wants to keep its options open, as Powell explained to the public. That means another rate hike could happen.
But it probably won’t. Seventeen out of 19 Federal Reserve officials envision lowering the interest rate by late 2024. Not a single one of them expects another hike.
In a nutshell: Interest rates may well have peaked in late 2023, when they hit 8%. In 2024, assuming inflation stays down, we can expect mortgage rates to gradually drop into the 5% range.
With Rates Expected to Be Coming Down, Are Would-Be Buyers About to Catch a Break?
Here’s what happens when the central bank takes rates down a notch or several notches. There’s always a ripple effect. Lower interest rate for banks tends to bring down interest rates on mortgage loans.
So, when the “pivot” takes place, that’ll press rates down. And for hopeful home buyers (or anyone needing to borrow money) that’s a good thing.
Just remember this. If you are waiting in the wings for lower mortgage rates to appear, you are in a lot of company. Lower mortgage rates in 2024 will unlock serious demand for home listings. And increasing demand will push home prices up.
Another reason the available housing will continue to be tight? Corporate landlords with ready cash are still out there buying homes, competing with regular buyers for listings.
So the big question is how much you’ll save on interest, versus how much you will pay for a home in a more active real estate market. How will this balance play out?
It’s hard to say how much the average home price will go up, because that depends so much on local factors. There’s a strong possibility of lower interest rates. Not the under-3% rates of January 2021. But rates low enough to bring the market out of its rut to some degree.
For hopeful buyers, 2024 could bring good opportunities in certain markets. Stay tuned.
Already a Homeowner and Itching to Move? It’s About to Get Easier for You.
As we’ve just noted, many people are waiting for rates to drop before they will buy homes. The Federal Reserve signaled that three interest rate cuts are possible in 2024. More buyers will be coming in from the sidelines once they start finding attractive mortgage rates.
Sellers will be delighted to know that prospective buyers should be out in force in 2024.
Plus, lower rates make it easier for current homeowners to buy new places with decent mortgage rates. And it sure looks like better mortgage rates are on the way — especially for those who can wait until late in 2024.
How significant is this? It’s a very big deal. Because 80%+ of current homeowners have mortgages with rates under 5%, they have not been willing to move and pay rates as high as 8%. If you have one of those relatively low-interest rate mortgages, you know the feeling of not wanting to give it up. In 2024, you may finally get “unstuck” and ready to move.
Now, if you are one of those homeowners who bought during 2023, when mortgage interest rates went up to 7% and higher, the Fed’s announcement is very good for you. Watch for an opportunity to get out of that 7% mortgage loan and refinance at a significantly lower rate.
Once the Fed actually “pivots” down, likely in the later part of 2024, expect to see lower rates on various kinds of loans. Importantly, we expect to see lower interest rates on mortgage refinancing.
As money gets easier to borrow, the rate of mortgage defaults and foreclosures goes down, too. That’s more good news.
What Does It All Mean for the Future?
We can expect the Fed to cut rates, starting no later than the second half of 2024. While rate-watchers point out that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages will still be in the 5% ranges in 2024, that’s quite a bit better than 7 to 8 percent. And the cuts will likely continue through 2025.
All good, right? It means the Fed sees inflation slowing, so yes, that’s good. Of course, there are other burning questions. Can inflation keep slowing without bringing on a recession and mass job cuts?
And when lending interest rates go down, how far is the fresh buying demand going to press home prices up? This good news seems inherently self-limiting, does it not?
Of course, no one has a crystal ball. And don’t forget that he Federal Reserve could withdraw its “dovish” signals if inflation does not stay in check during 2024.
But at this moment, the Federal Reserve’s breaking news tells us we have a good chance of being right if we predict strength ahead for homeowners’ equity. That’s because demand for homes should remain high throughout the coming years. So will people’s ability to take out mortgages, given what we’re seeing at this time.
Good luck out there, friends. Because we all really need a break in this economy.
Supporting References
Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Saqib Ahmed, and Lindsay Dunsmuir for Reuters: Fed Flags End of Rate Hikes, Sees Drop in Borrowing Costs in 2024 (Dec. 13, 2023).
Brian Kim for ClearValue Tax, via YouTube.com: Breaking News – Federal Reserve Ends Rate Hikes – Interest Rate Cuts Incoming (Dec. 13, 2023).
Deeds.com: Holding Low Interest Loans, Many Homeowners Are Too Comfortable to Move (May 31, 2023).
Erika Giovanetti for the US News & World Report: Historical Mortgage Rate Facts (Nov. 22, 2023).
And as linked.
More on topics: 2024 home price predictions, Ginnie Mae promotes affordable mortgages
Photo credits Karolina Grabowska, via Pexels, and U.S. Federal Reserve / Public Domain via Flickr.