Recession or No Recession? Does It Matter, for People Priced Out of Homeownership?

We’re reading a lot now about a growing optimism that the United States could avoid a recession — in spite of our central bank’s aggressive hiking of interest rates.

At the same time, there are other commentators who warn people not to get too hopeful about the economy.

Whichever way it all plays out, droves of potential homeowners are still being sidelined. Why do so few economic discussions include them?

Economists Talk About Rising Unemployment Like It’s a Good Thing.

The head economist at JPMorgan Chase now says a 2023 recession is not likely. Likewise, Bank of America economists just predicted a growing U.S. economy over the coming months. Partly because of rising unemployment, these economists now expect the United States to avert a long-awaited recession.

Well, great! But the rising unemployment is no prize for people doing their best to keep working and saving for a down payment on a home.

Recent reports of a cooldown in job growth add up to a “reason for Wall Street’s optimism” that inflation will come down to where the central bank wants it without a recession, says CNN Business. In fact, when the Fed hikes federal interest rates (which it’s been doing since March 2022), it’s doing it partly to cool off the job market.

At least two issues need some attention here:

First, how are people going to get their down payment funds together if they’re struggling to find jobs? People who are coming of age and entering the work force need a growing employment scenario.

A high proportion of people who are trying to break into the job market are Black and brown applicants. Statistics covering the first half of 2023 show that they, especially, are being sidelined.

And a second question: What do rising interest rates do to people who are hoping to qualify for a mortgage? Read on. We’ll get to that in the next section.

Dear U.S. Economists: Have You Forgotten What It’s Like to Be First-Time Home Buyers?

One has to wonder: How would these economists like to give up their current homes and go out and buy them back at today’s property values, given the ~7% 30-year fixed mortgage rates of 2023?

It’s not only the up-and-coming workers who are in this difficult position. Plenty of people in their thirties, forties and up have now been renting their entire adult lives. More than a third of the U.S. adult population do not own their homes.

Many people are still nowhere near being able to afford a down payment on a home of any size. They might be doing all they can to get where they need to be financially, but they simply have no way to outpace their cash outflows as they send ever-larger monthly payments to landlords.

She Got Her Credit in Order, Took First-Time Homeowner Classes… And Then Interest Rates Rose.

National Public Radio’s Morning Edition recently interviewed a domestic violence survivor who’s been trying to apply for a mortgage. As NPR recounted:

She got her credit in order, took first-time homeowner classes and worked a second job to save for a down payment. And then interest rates rose.

So for some, every time they think they see light at the end of the tunnel, something happens. Trying to save up, after taking care of their monthly rent payments, plus utilities, insurance premiums, groceries, and perhaps vet bills and pet food costs, can feel like an exercise in futility.

A person who might have been on the verge of eligibility now fails to get a loan approval. Why? A monthly mortgage payment is higher when the cost of borrowing is higher. The interest rate factors into a home buyer’s monthly payment responsibility. So the higher the interest rates go, the harder it becomes for people on the verge to convince a lender that they can handle the repayments.

So there are a lot of people out there, wanting to know if their ships will ever come in.

And What if the Recession Does Materialize? Will That Help or Hurt Hopeful Buyers?

There is still a sizeable camp that says the United States is due for a recession by the end of 2023 going into 2024. Then again, some say a recession could have a silver lining, because in a recession people start losing jobs, and that would mean the demand for homes would fall, and prices would presumably get lower.

Steve Inskeep of NPR spoke with William Spriggs of the Howard University economics department, who is also the AFL-CIO’s chief economist. They discussed the impact of the federal interest rate hikes on people with modest incomes who might like to buy homes. Inskeep asked about the potential silver lining. If high interest rates mean mortgages get more expensive, won’t this bring the high home prices down a bit? Isn’t that starting to happen? And won’t that mean more people can move from the sidelines into mortgages in the months ahead?

Spriggs responded.

No…because at these higher interest rates, people who want to buy a home are still going to be stuck with higher housing payments from those higher interest rates.

The economics of real estate just aren’t going well for the frustrated people who want to get, but can’t get, their own homes.

The stark reality is this. According to Redfin, a first-time buyer applying for financing must be making over $60K, or today’s mortgages will be out of reach. The 2023 applicants have to be earning about 13% more than the mortgage applicants of 2022. And it’s not as though a recession will help first-time buyers earn more income!

So, What Are Buyers Supposed to Do Now?

It’s not fair, but while they’re waiting for fairness, buyers with modest incomes are having to get creative. That could mean looking for cities and towns in the process of upzoning and allowing more tiny houses and backyard cottages.

Or it could mean connecting with organized tenancies in common. Or perhaps going in on a home purchase with a trusted friend.

You could call these out-of-the-box moves for challenging times. Are they worth it? If the alternative is continuing to rent and missing out on any chance to build home equity, they’re at least worth considering.

Supporting References

NPR Business Transcript of Steve Inskeep’s interview with William Spriggs via NPR.org: Morning Edition – As the Fed Battles Inflation, It’s Harder for Low-Income Workers to Buy a Home (Mar. 23, 2023).

Krystal Hur for Cable News Network, a Warner Bros. Discovery Company, via CNN.com: Analysis – Not Everyone Is Convinced the United States Will Avoid a Recession (Aug. 7, 2023; citing a report from Bank of America economists led by Michael Gapen).

The Zebra: Homeownership Statistics (updated January 31, 2023; citing the U.S. Census Bureau data indicating that 35% of the American population does not own their own homes).

Jeff Cox for CNBC.com: Federal Reserve Approves First Interest Rate Hike in More Than Three Years, Sees Six More Ahead (Mar. 16 2022; updated Mar. 17, 2022).

And as linked.