Of all states, California has the biggest housing market. But population growth is shifting. Since the pandemic began, it’s Florida, of all the states, that got the fastest population increase. More than a thousand people relocate to Florida daily. Florida’s now in second place for total home property value — surging ahead of New York state, which experienced out-migration.
The stats come from Zillow. The company is taking notice of Florida’s home values, which total $160 billion more than they did just one year ago. (Nationwide, Zillow stats show, all housing rose more than $2.6 trillion in total value since last year!)
Meanwhile, the total residential property value in California has dipped.
Certain Cities Are Drawing Crowds of Buyers
Since the start of the pandemic, home values in Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami are up 80%+. Orlando is also growing at an amazing clip. Miami zipped up from #9 to #5 in the nation’s biggest metro housing markets.
Last year, Florida gained 315,000 new residents. That means it grew in population by 2% in only the span of a year.
Florida could easily have 25 million residents by 2030. All these new Floridians need homes. This raises home prices.
From 2020 to 2022, Texas and Florida were the two fastest-growing states. At the same time, Idaho and South Carolina also grew at the fast clip.
High-growth states may benefit economically, but growth is a two-edged sword. Boom towns have to replace sewer and road infrastructure.
In Florida especially, federally subsidized flood insurance is propping up a large portion of development. The system cannot take much more stress. Can so many new people expect to rely on an already strained federal insurance system?
Safe or Sorry? Understand the Evolving Law of Disclosing Flood Risk (and How to Look Up Your Own Home’s Risk of Flooding)
According to a May 2023 editorial in the Tampa Bay Times:
Flood insurance rates could double for many Tampa Bay property owners. In some cases, that will also mean strategically retreating from the most vulnerable areas, or deciding not to rebuild…
It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Florida simply doesn’t have the land to support constant growth. But there are ways to better accommodate people who do move in. There are methods that acknowledge the limits of the land that exists.
And this raises the matter of zoning.
Florida’s Zoning Laws Need Updating for the Times
Traditional suburban zoning is hard for many to give up. But gradually, it’s giving way to new realities. We need to come up with solutions for a country with a serious shortage of housing.
Florida is no exception to the dream-home ideal: single houses overlooking wide acres of manicured landscaping. But in recent years, there’s a growing outcry for smaller lots. In Florida and elsewhere, we hear calls for “upzoning”: more backyard cottages, basement units, and other accessory dwelling units to promote gentle density.
In contrast, developers in Florida have, in recent decades, created large, carriage-house style developments. Many of these developments have spread over the land, including over Florida’s sensitive wetlands, riversides, and limited unbuilt territories.
Building over what’s left of Florida’s ecosystems will cause further extinctions of birds and other animal life. It will also mean placing more housing in the way of ever-strengthening storm systems. A case in Point? Lee County. Hurricane Ian famously took aim at the area, which was packed with new homeowners.
Amid the vast destruction, Babcock Ranch stood firm. It’s a residential development that adopted a landscaping approach designed for resilience in the face of powerful storms. It integrates natural features. And it did not flood. Communities are beginning to feel the ways nature can protect us, when we protect it. And that involves finding ways to make sure all these new Floridians don’t overrun the natural lands and waters that have made their new state so beloved in the first place.
Population booms are pricing regular renters and buyers right out of their own markets. Could tiny houses help people become homeowners?
Florida’s Homeowners Will Gain a Helpful Deed Protection Law
Large, state-wide market shifts involve a lot of deed transfers — and quite a few new deeds.
As it happens, in the midst of a flurry of deed creation in Florida’s hot spots, County Clerk Kevin Karnes of Lee County, Florida is implementing HB 1419 — a new law to ward off fraud involving home titles. People filing papers with forged signatures are not uncommon in Florida — home to a large population of seniors.
Lee is the county that includes Fort Myers and Cape Coral. It’s a rapidly growing area. It also has a notable senior population.
So, the Lee County Clerk’s Office is a perfect place to test out a new Title Fraud Prevention Through Identity Verification model. Now, the county deed recorder requests a government photo ID whenever someone files a deed. The Clerk’s office makes and keeps a copy of the filer’s identification card. This new rule should help the county to prevent (and the state to prosecute) deed fraud.
Under traditional laws, a deed recorder doesn’t verify identification. Not even if something seems obviously fishy. A deed recorder accepts deeds that meets the standard requirements. In Florida, that tradition may well be on the way out.
Lee County’s new deed recording rule had its soft launch this August. In early 2024, it will be in full effect. By late 2025, Lee County will report on the new model to Florida’s state lawmakers. They will then deliberate on whether the model should be adopted by all of Florida.
For particular questions about the new identity verification law in Florida, call the Lee County Clerk’s Office or consult a real estate attorney. For more general information, we offer these… Frequently Asked Questions About Filing a Deed
Lee County homeowners may opt into the Lee County Property Fraud Alert if they wish to receive messages whenever a deed or any legal claim is filed on their homes.
If you are one of the thousand-plus people moving to Florida every day, welcome to the Sunshine State. We’re glad to help you with your deed form requirements in Florida.
Supporting References
Justin Warmoth for News 6 (Your Florida Daily: WKMG ClickOrlando): “Boomtown” — Central Florida Population Growth Continues to Explode (Sep. 11, 2023; updated Sep. 13, 2023).
Alex Tanzi for Bloomberg.com via Financial Post (a division of Postmedia Network Inc.): Florida Overtakes New York as Second Most Valuable Housing Market in U.S. (Sep. 26, 2023).
Selene San Felice for Axios.com: Axios Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay and Florida Get Richer and More Popular, Census Data Shows (Sep 19, 2023; citing U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey statistics).
Graham Brink, Sherri Day, Sebastian Dortch, John Hill, Jim Verhulst, and Conan Gallaty, Editorial Board for the Tampa Bay Times (Times Publishing Company): Opinion – Florida’s Booming Population. Seven Charts Tell the Hidden Story (editorial published May 11, 2023; updated May 12, 2023).
The Florida Bar: Florida Bar News – Pilot Program’s Goal Is to Stem Property Fraud (Jun. 30, 2023).
And as linked.
More on topics: Housing market, Forged deeds
Photo credits: Boston Public Library (CC BY 2.0 Generic); and Anon, via Pexels.