As Asheville Recovers, Home Buyers Rethink the Whole “Climate Haven” Idea

Asheville, a quaint and popular North Carolina town, has long been known for its welcoming atmosphere and a mild, inviting climate. Indeed, a public radio station once showcased Asheville as winning the real estate stakes of an unsettled climate.

It’s now well understood that tropical storms get supercharged by human-driven effects on the atmosphere’s temperatures. This same dynamic shaped a long drought, followed by a series of deadly fires that raged over the Great Smoky Mountains of Tennessee in November 2016.

But some looked to Asheville as a safe haven, and they moved there in droves. Then came 2024, and Hurricane Helene.

How It Started—And How It’s Going

Destructive storms, powered by warming sea surfaces, have pushed some people away from coastal regions. Ever since hurricane season hit the U.S. seacoast hard in 2017, significant numbers of people have headed inland. According to Vox.com, rising flood risks “may have already pushed several million people” to make such a move.

Some looked to the Midwest, where the Great Lakes offer plenty of water, and temperatures are relatively cool. Duluth, Minnesota received plenty of positive attention when the director of the Center on Climate Change and Urbanism at Tulane University was heard using the phrase “climate-proof Duluth.” (It was actually part of a marketing campaign commissioned by the University of Minnesota Duluth, which the professor was involved in.) The phrase first appeared in The New York Times in 2019, quoting Jesse Keenan, Tulane’s associate professor of sustainable real estate, who was lecturing at Harvard at the time. Yes, being a professor of sustainable real estate is a thing now.

The phrase hasn’t aged well. Soon after The New York Times quoted it, the area flooded. And this past summer, northeast Minnesota was inundated with record-setting storms.

And over the past five years, the extreme weather events kept coming. The latest shock was Asheville. High ground, community-focused… Surely Asheville would be safe as any place can be. Census figures show Asheville’s population steadily rising since 2010.

And yet, throughout much of the mountainous southeast, weather is losing its predictability, leaning into longer dry periods and heavier rains, landslides and flash floods. All the while, other regions are experiencing parallel changes.

USA Today published a column on sustainable real estate last year. It cited the sustainable real estate prof, and included a list of top cities welcoming climate-aware buyers. Asheville appeared in third place. The top spot went to Duluth, and Orlando came in second — presumably because of its inland location. Notably, Orlando, too, has faced its share of hurricane exposure. In early October 2024, you might have seen the headlines announcing Disney World and Universal closures as Hurricane Milton arrived.

Vermont, too, has been called a possible haven. In recent years many people have looked to the state’s real estate market to secure their futures. Cheryl Morse, an environmental professor at the University of Vermont, explained: “In their imagination, Vermont presented a safer climate…” Then, in 2011, the storm named Irene ravaged the area. Last year, Vermonters were overcome by Canada’s wildfire smoke. Next, the state and its surrounding region experienced a multi-billion-dollar flood emergency.

And how are things in Buffalo, New York since Mayor Byron Brown called it a “climate refuge” in his 2019 State of the City address? (Note the haven hype on a Buffalo economic development website published by Invest Buffalo Niagara, and the way so many reporters picked it up and ran with it.) The city has made the news this year for extreme summer storms.

Climate Havens = Wishful Thinking?

Inland cities want to attract new taxpayers. It’s tempting to seize upon the idea that a place is hazard-resistant. But it might be a good idea to do a bit more research before placing faith in a catchphrase.

Helpful new rules have come out on flood disclosures in Florida, and fire disclosures in western states. And we can all do some digging into real climate risk factors before deciding to accept a deed.

Now, a home seeker can see climate risk scores on the Zillow and Redfin real estate listings. The First Street Foundation, which developed the Risk Factor tool, is boldly leading the data processing for companies and agencies. Granted, First Street too has drawn critiques.

It’s important to remember the global part of global warming. In other words: It’s hard to stay away from fire-prone areas when we rightly value forests. Moving inland might be some protection from rising seas — and yet many towns are a stone’s throw from tidal rivers. Floods are becoming increasingly hazardous. Sugarcoating this would be a disservice to readers.

And yes, we can and should be careful about developing property near rivers and areas with high fire risks or repetitive flooding. But those presumably safer areas are becoming harder to find.

Plus, we need to think about the infrastructure and basic services in place. It’s good to find a home on high ground, but we also need transit options that hold up under pressure, reliable power sources, and community-supportive resources. In fairness to Asheville, the city’s Planning and Urban Design department is working hard to bolster the resilience of its people. The city has carried out a climate resilience assessment, and has been acting on its findings. Asheville focuses on transit options, preserving green spaces and addressing stormwater runoff. It’s encouraging edible and native gardening initiatives. And it’s reinforcing the strength of its population by promoting affordable housing and other needs of working people.

In Short, Real Estate Is Changing

We want to think there are safe or at least resilient places when we sign our mortgages. How well will a property hold up? Increasingly, climate is part of the evaluation.

And we’re all dealing with the changes together. At the end of the day, what is a “haven” if it’s insulated from what’s going on around it?

This is why dealing with emissions in the first place is a vital priority.